The International Energy Agency predicts global renewable capacity will double by 2030, but renewable use in North America is slowing down.
The International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Renewables 2025 report projects that global renewable power capacity will grow by 4,600 GW by 2030, a 900 GW decrease from the 2024 projection for growth by 2030, due to a handful of global policy changes. Despite the decreased projection, expectations are still high. Solar photovoltaics will account for nearly 80% of the capacity increase.
At the same time, the IEA has downgraded predictions for the U.S. and Canada, as electricity demand, policy, and regulatory changes pose challenges.
Solar will make up 80% of the increase in renewables by 2030. Adapted from image used courtesy of Pexels
Projected Renewable Energy Growth
Global solar photovoltaic capacity is expected to more than double over the next five years, driven by declining costs, faster permitting, and widespread public support.
Renewable electricity capacity growth by technology segment, 2013-2030. Image used courtesy of IEA
Despite ongoing supply chain and permitting challenges, wind power is projected to double as major markets such as China and the European Union implement measures to overcome these hurdles. Hydropower is expected to account for around 3% of renewable capacity growth, supported by the continued expansion of pumped storage projects. Geothermal energy is also anticipated to grow strongly, with the United States, Indonesia, Japan, Turkey, Kenya, and the Philippines leading in developments.
Support for Renewable Growth
The growth in the renewable energy sector continues to face expected challenges, including grid integration, supply chain vulnerabilities, and access to financial support. However, as more than 80% of countries are set to experience faster renewable power capacity growth between 2025 and 2030 than they did from 2020 to 2025, the momentum for expansion appears to be outpacing the challenges.
Ember, a global energy think tank, indicated that renewable energy surpassed coal as the world’s largest source of electricity for the first time ever during the first half of 2025. The surge in solar and wind generation was so substantial that it met all the additional electricity demand from global growth during this period.
Renewable capacity growth and the gap to global tripling, 2022-2030. Image used courtesy of IEA
Renewables are gaining momentum in growing economies within Asia, the Middle East, and Africa, as cost competitiveness improves and policy support strengthens. Many governments are increasing their renewable energy targets. India is on track to become the world’s second-largest market for renewable growth behind China and is expected to meet its 2030 goal.
At the corporate level, most major developers remain confident in renewables, having maintained or increased their 2030 deployment targets compared to last year.
Constraints to Renewable Growth
While the initial outlook from the Ember report is promising, with renewables overtaking coal as the largest global electricity source, the IEA downgraded its projection for renewables for the United States and China, the world’s largest markets.
In the U.S., the early phase-out of federal tax incentives and other regulatory changes has lowered growth expectations by nearly 50% compared with last year’s forecast. Meanwhile, China’s transition from fixed tariffs to competitive auctions is tightening project economics and contributing to the global slowdown in projected renewable expansion.
Renewable capacity expansion changes from Renewables 2024 to Renewables 2025 in selected countries or regions, 2025-2030. Image used courtesy of IEA
The Ember report also notes that the United States and the European Union both relied heavily on coal and gas when other countries’ renewable use shot up. In the U.S., electricity demand has risen faster than clean energy output, increasing dependence on fossil fuels. In the EU, several months of weak wind and hydropower generation similarly drove up coal and gas use.
The Good News for Renewables
Overall, renewable power installations and capacity are expected to rise steadily. Although policy shifts may be slowing growth in some regions, it is not surprising that the U.S. and the EU—which have relied heavily on fossil fuels since the Industrial Revolution—may be slower to transition fully to renewables, given deep-rooted infrastructure and investments in conventional energy sources.
Encouragingly, significant investment is flowing into emerging economies that lack a long history of fossil fuel dependence. In these countries, the shift to renewable energy is more straightforward, as they are building new infrastructure for renewables rather than replacing established fossil fuel systems.
The IEA reports that countries have reduced coal imports by 700 million tonnes and natural gas imports by 400 billion cubic meters since 2010. In addition to growing renewable electricity capacity, renewables are expected to expand their role in other sectors by 2030, with their contribution to the transport sector increasing by 2% and renewable heat consumption increasing by 42%.
